2008 Presidential Prediction
Here’s one of those posts I’ll either want to forget about if it’s way off, or republish over and over again. Lots of other sites are making their final predictions for the Presidential race, so here’s mine:
Barack Obama 291
John McCain 247
RealClearPolitics has it at Obama 338 / McCain 200, but there are a couple of states we disagree about: Florida and Ohio, which RCP gives to Obama.
McCain has been pushing very hard for Pennsylvania, and without Virginia, it’s his only hope. But even with Pennsylvania in my scenario he’d still end up 2 Electoral College votes short (268-270) and would need a state somewhere else. I’m not totally convinced Nevada and Colorado are lost to McCain, and some sites think Iowa and Minnesota are still in play. I don’t.
All eyes will be on the first polls to close, which include Virginia, and within an hour followed by Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. How those go will decide if it will be a long night or not.